The San Diego Padres are arguably the most fun team to watch in baseball as they have been for several years. The Padres have paired those good vibes with an electrifying second half of the season, putting them in contention for the National League pennant.
The Padres are 40-17 since the All-Star break with a whopping +85 run differential. They’ve dropped only two series during that span and lost consecutive games three times. San Diego means business, and they might shock some people this week and in the playoffs.
Coming off a disappointing 82-80 campaign in 2023 after reaching the NLCS the year before, the Padres are right where they expected to be. San Diego has put together unbelievably talented rosters over the past few seasons but hasn’t been considered an elite contender in the National League. The tides seem to be changing on that with this special second-half run.
Still, even if the Padres enter the MLB playoffs scorching hot, a championship won’t be handed to them. Their path to the World Series won’t be easy and there might be a particular National League team that the Padres want to avoid. Spoiler: it’s not the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Padres need a perfect week to claim a bye
The Padres are in a precarious situation regarding their seeding with six games left on the schedule. San Diego needs only one win or an Atlanta Braves loss to clinch a playoff berth, which will likely end with the Padres claiming the top Wild Card spot and the fourth seed in the NL.
There is however a chance for them to shock the baseball world and shake up the standings this week. The Padres can still catch the Dodgers for the NL West crown and it’s all right in front of them as they begin a three-game series in Los Angeles Tuesday.
The Dodgers hold a three-game lead so the only way the Padres come away from the series in first place is with a sweep. The Dodgers were swept twice this season, both times on the road. That won’t discourage the Padres though, who’ve had the Dodgers’ number this season.
San Diego is 7-3 against Los Angeles, the only NL West team with a winning record against the Dodgers. It’s LA’s second-worst winning percentage against any team in 2024, only topped by its 1-5 record when facing the Philadelphia Phillies.
Even with a series win, the Padres would be two games back with three to play. They have to go nearly perfect, or more likely exactly 6-0, to jump the Dodgers and earn a bye. If not, the four-seed and a Wild Card Series at home awaits San Diego next week.
2022 NLCS rematch is the last thing San Diego wants
The Padres should enter any playoff series with extreme confidence with how they’ve played over the past two months. They could get nightmares and flashbacks if they run into the Phillies though, a team the Padres can’t figure out.
Philly claimed the season series over San Diego for the fourth consecutive season in 2024, winning five of six over the Padres. The Padres were held to three or fewer runs in four games and were outscored 37-20.
There are also the demons of the 2022 NLCS where the Phillies earned the National League pennant over the Padres in five games. San Diego held leads in two of the three games played in Philadelphia but lost every game en route to their season ending.
Including the MLB playoffs, the Phillies are 22-9 against the Padres since 2021 and 11-5 at home against San Diego.
Overall, the Phillies match up better than any other NL team when it comes to diminishing the Padres’ strengths. San Diego’s offense is one of the best in baseball, ranking first in batting average, fifth in OPS and eighth in runs scored. On the other side, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has been phenomenal, placing top-eight in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Phillies starters in particular have been otherworldly, especially the four pitchers they expect to be in their playoff rotation. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez have a combined 3.12 ERA in 2024. Only the Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves have gotten more fWAR from their starting pitchers.
Phillies starting pitchers have a 3.26 ERA against the Padres with five quality starts. The lone non-quality outing was tossed by Taijuan Walker, whose struggles this season have been the only blemish on Philadelphia’s rotation.
Depending on how the seeding falls, the Padres and Phillies could meet in the NLDS or the NLCS. Regardless, beating Philadelphia in the MLB playoffs will be a hard hill to climb for San Diego.
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