ST. LOUIS — The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter predictions for the 2024-2025 season, continuing a tradition dating back to 1792. So, what’s the forecast for the Midwest? Well, the almanac says that Missouri should expect mild temperatures and snow.
Is that forecast accurate? The Farmers’ Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac both predict winter weather months in advance using traditional methods, but their claimed 80% accuracy has been challenged by scientific studies showing their forecasts are only slightly better than chance.
According to the Almanac, the upcoming winter will bring diverse weather patterns across the United States. The heartland of America, including Iowa, Missouri, eastern Kansas, and Nebraska, is expected to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures. In contrast, central and southern Appalachia, the western Ohio Valley, and the Rockies are predicted to receive heavy snowfall.
Florida, the Deep South, and southern California are forecast to face above-average rainfall. The Almanac suggests that the coldest periods for the heartland will occur in late January and early and late February, with below-normal precipitation and snowfall throughout the season.
However, the accuracy of these long-range forecasts is questionable. An examination of the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s predictions for Indianapolis over the past five years reveals that only 4 out of 10 temperature and precipitation forecasts were correct. Similarly, the competing Farmers’ Almanac has shown even less accuracy, with 0 out of 10 correct predictions for Indianapolis during the same period.
Meteorologists and climate scientists generally rely on more scientifically rigorous forecasts. FOX 2 and KPLR 11 typically release our long-range winter weather outlook later in the fall.
The 2025 edition of The Old Farmer’s Almanac offers more content beyond its traditional weather forecasts. It features historical and cultural pieces, including the evolution of tomatoes in North American cuisine, the Canadian roots of baseball, and the increasing occurrence of avalanches. Readers can also expect the Almanac’s predictions for 2025 trends, puzzles, recipes, and comprehensive weather forecasts for all U.S. regions, including Alaska and Hawaii.
